Casino Games With Best Odds: An Australian Guide to House Edge and RTP

How to compare casino game odds

The casino house edge is the expected net loss expressed as a percentage of a specified wager or wagering measure. Return to player, or RTP, is the expected proportion returned, including returned stakes, over the relevant long run. When both are calculated on the same basis, RTP equals 100% minus the house edge.

For example, a 2% edge on $1,000 of qualifying turnover implies an expected loss of $20. It does not mean you will lose exactly $20 in a session. Turnover is the amount wagered, not necessarily the money you brought: it can grow as you wager returned money again.

Casino game RTP is also different from the chance of winning. A game may provide frequent small payouts while another offers less frequent, larger prizes. Neither its RTP nor its house edge alone tells you how often you will finish a session ahead. A payout that only returns your stake is not a profit, and a push is neither a win nor a loss.

Before comparing figures, identify the variant, bet, rules, pay table, commission and assumed strategy. Check the denominator too: an edge per initial blackjack bet, an RTP per video-poker wager and a figure based on combined craps stakes do not describe identical cash exposure. Finally, check whether the particular rules are actually available where you intend to play.

Casino games with best odds: documented comparisons

The following figures are approximate examples, not a universal ranking. The blackjack, baccarat, craps and video-poker figures come from mathematical analyses by Wizard of Odds; the roulette margins are also described in Liquor & Gaming NSW signage.

The figures use different wagering measures. Blackjack's initial-bet calculation can involve additional money through doubling or splitting. Video-poker RTP is per wager. The baccarat examples count ties as zero-result outcomes; calculations per resolved bet use a different basis. The craps true-odds component is listed separately because it normally requires a base bet.

These examples illustrate rules that have been analysed; they do not establish that the same games or pay tables are currently offered at an Australian venue.

• Blackjack, TMS-300 video configuration: 0.39% house edge on the initial bet, assuming the specified rules and total-dependent basic strategy.
• Video poker, full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better: 99.54% RTP, or approximately 0.46% edge, with the specified pay table and optimal play.
• Baccarat, banker: 1.06% edge in an eight-deck game with 5% commission on winning banker bets; ties push.
• Baccarat, player: 1.24% edge in the same eight-deck example; ties push and winning player bets pay even money.
• Craps, don't pass: 1.36% edge under standard rules, including a push on 12, without an odds bet.
• Craps, pass line: 1.41% edge under standard rules, without an odds bet.
• Roulette, single-zero: 2.70% edge on standard bets with conventional payouts and no special refund rule.
• Roulette, double-zero: 5.26% edge on most standard bets with conventional payouts; the five-number bet is an exception where offered.
• Baccarat, tie: 14.36% edge in the eight-deck example when a winning tie bet pays 8:1.
• Craps, true-odds component: 0% edge under true-odds payouts. It normally accompanies a base bet that retains an edge, and the additional stake is at risk.

Blackjack: a low edge depends on rules and decisions

The 0.39% blackjack house edge belongs to one specific six-deck video blackjack configuration, not to blackjack generally. It pays 3:2 for a natural blackjack, has the dealer stand on soft 17 and uses American hole-card rules. A soft 17 is a hand containing an ace counted as 11, such as ace and six.

The calculation also includes doubling after splitting, late surrender, a seven-card Charlie, one split and one card to split aces. It assumes total-dependent basic strategy: decisions based on the player's hand total and the dealer's visible card. Different rules or decisions can produce different blackjack odds.

Before relying on a published edge, check the payout for a natural blackjack, the number of decks, the dealer's soft-17 rule, and what happens when the dealer has blackjack. Also inspect the rules for splitting, doubling and surrender. A side bet has its own odds; the main-game figure does not automatically apply to it. Basic strategy can improve decisions compared with less favourable play, but it cannot guarantee a win.

Baccarat: banker, player and tie are different bets

Baccarat odds depend heavily on which outcome you back. In the documented eight-deck example, the banker bet has a 1.06% edge after a 5% commission on winning banker bets. The player bet has a 1.24% edge and pays even money when it wins. If the result is a tie, both banker and player bets push.

The tie bet is separate. At an 8:1 payout, its edge is 14.36% in the same example. The larger payout does not by itself make it the better long-run bet: the probability of the outcome matters too.

When comparing published baccarat figures, check how ties are handled in the calculation. An edge stated per resolved banker wager is not directly interchangeable with the figure above, which includes ties as zero-result outcomes. A commission-free game may use a different payout rule instead, so read that rule before assuming the banker bet is cheaper.

Roulette: inspect the wheel and the bet

The familiar comparison of European roulette vs American roulette is essentially a question about the wheel and its rules. A single-zero wheel has 37 pockets and, with conventional payouts, a 2.70% edge on standard bets. A double-zero wheel has 38 pockets and a 5.26% edge on most standard bets. Inspect the actual wheel rather than relying solely on the game's label.

Consider an even-money red bet. On a conventional single-zero wheel, zero is an additional losing pocket. A double-zero wheel adds another losing pocket without increasing the usual even-money payout. The five-number bet covering 0, 00, 1, 2 and 3 is an exception to the standard double-zero margin where it is offered.

Special rules can change roulette odds. Under la partage, for example, an eligible even-money bet loses only half its stake when zero appears, halving the single-zero edge for that bet. The researched example does not establish that this rule is currently available at an Australian venue.

Video poker: the pay table is part of the odds

The 99.54% video poker RTP in the comparison applies to a specified full-pay 9/6 Jacks or Better game played optimally. The shorthand 9/6 refers to payouts of nine units for a full house and six for a flush. The analysed schedule also pays 800 per unit wagered for a royal flush.

That name alone is not enough to establish the return. The source's 9/5 Jacks or Better example has an approximately 98.45% RTP under optimal play. A changed payout can therefore make a meaningful difference to the theoretical result.

Check the entire pay table and the stake level needed for the stated royal-flush payout. Decisions about which cards to hold also matter: the quoted return assumes optimal play, and mistakes can reduce the expected return. The exact full-pay game was not verified at an Australian land-based venue.

Craps: separate the base bet from the odds component

A true-odds wager is usually added after a qualifying base bet and after a point has been established. Its payout reflects the odds of the relevant point appearing before a seven. For example, a true-odds bet on a point of 4 pays 2:1 if it wins.

Under those payouts, the isolated craps odds component has a 0% theoretical edge. That does not make the overall play risk-free or erase the edge on the underlying pass-line bet. Both wagers can lose, and adding the odds component puts more money at risk.

A combined edge expressed as a percentage of all stakes can look lower because it includes the additional true-odds money in the denominator. That is a different measure from the edge on the original pass-line wager. Check the venue's rules and limits rather than assuming a particular odds multiple is available.

Pokies: look for the RTP of the specific machine

There is no single pokies RTP that describes every Australian machine. A pay table explains prize rules, but it may not disclose the game's theoretical return. Check the machine's information screen or an official game document, or ask the venue. If you cannot find a reliable figure for the relevant game, do not guess.

Record the game name, any relevant stake and feature rules, and where the RTP figure came from. A published RTP describes a theoretical long-run return, not what the next spin or a particular session will pay. Requirements vary by jurisdiction, and venue-level payout obligations should not be treated as a promise about every machine or session.

Five checks before choosing a game

A comparison is useful only if it matches the game and bet in front of you. Before playing, work through the following checks:

• Identify the exact variant and bet, rather than relying on the game name.
• Read the rules and pay table, including commissions, special payouts and any side bets.
• Find a reliable house-edge or RTP figure and check whether it assumes optimal decisions.
• Confirm the calculation basis: initial bet, total wagering or another stated measure.
• Consider stake size, speed of play and the possibility of large swings, and set spending and time limits before starting.

Australian availability and online casino rules

The Australian Communications and Media Authority says providers are prohibited from offering online casino services to people in Australia. Its examples include online pokies and casino-style blackjack and roulette. Australian-licensed online wagering is a separate category. An offshore licence or an accessible website does not establish that an operator may lawfully offer online casino games to Australians.

That is a statement about providing the service; it should not be read as a claim that every act of playing is itself a criminal offence. ACMA also warns that customers of illegal operators may have limited access to Australian regulatory assistance if a provider withholds winnings.

For land-based play, approved games and venue rules depend on the jurisdiction and the venue. Check the current rules with the venue and the relevant state or territory regulator. Victoria's regulator, for example, states that patrons must be at least 18 to access the gaming areas described in its guidance.

Western Australia has a distinct electronic-gaming framework: poker-machine electronic gaming machines are prohibited, while authorised non-poker-machine electronic games at the casino are regulated separately. Do not assume that a game or machine discussed in a general comparison is available in every state or venue.

Setting limits and finding support

Decide on a spending limit and a time limit before playing, and do not chase losses. Treat gambling as entertainment rather than income. These limits do not change the odds or guarantee that losses will remain manageable.

The National Gambling Helpline is 1800 858 858. It is free and confidential and operates 24 hours a day, seven days a week. Gambling Help Online is another option for people affected by gambling; the Department of Social Services support page listed below provides details.

FAQ

Which casino game has the lowest house edge?

The documented craps true-odds component has a 0% edge under true-odds payouts, but it normally requires a base bet that retains an edge. The named blackjack and full-pay video-poker examples also have low theoretical edges under their specified rules and strategy. These examples are not a universal ranking, and their local availability has not been verified.

Does a higher RTP mean I am more likely to win?

Not necessarily. RTP measures expected long-run return relative to the applicable wagers. The frequency of any payout, the frequency of a net profit and the size of prizes are separate measures. A higher RTP does not predict whether a particular session will end ahead.

Are blackjack or baccarat odds better?

In the documented examples, the TMS-300 blackjack configuration has a 0.39% edge, compared with 1.06% for the eight-deck baccarat banker bet with 5% commission. Blackjack's figure assumes specific rules and basic strategy. Different rules, player decisions and calculation bases can change the comparison.

Can a betting system overcome the house edge?

Changing stake sizes does not change the underlying expected edge of an unchanged negative-expectation bet. Increasing a stake after a loss, for example, changes the amount exposed and the possible results, not the game's margin. This is different from making better decisions in a game where strategy affects the return.

Is a 0% craps odds bet risk-free?

No. The true-odds component can have a 0% theoretical edge, but it normally accompanies a base wager such as a pass-line bet. Both can lose, and adding the odds wager increases the total amount exposed.

Can I find a pokie's RTP on its pay table?

Not always. A pay table describes prizes, but may not disclose theoretical RTP. Check the information screen, an official game document or ask the venue. If a reliable figure for that game is unavailable, do not infer one from the prize table.

Are online casino games legal in Australia?

ACMA says providers cannot legally offer online casino services to people in Australia. Australian-licensed online wagering is a separate category. The provider prohibition should not be turned into a blanket claim about criminal liability for every individual player; consult current ACMA guidance for details.